Data-Based Insights & Decision Making as a Creative

It's not difficult to track data, but effectively using it in decision-making is something else.

Since late 2015, my Filmsupply stock footage portfolio has generated 1,276 individual licensing fees. As a Contributor, that revenue gets split with me (currently 45.1%). 2020 and 2021 saw my revenues up 150-200% compared to previous years, but those two years were outliers due to COVID-19 turning live production on its head. There was a solid period in that mess where my cut of that revenue was $6-7,000/month, but those days are long gone. 2023 was a dumpster fire and my average monthly licensing revenue was roughly 47% below my 2022 numbers. So far, 2024 is looking up, but I'm hesitant to be holding my breath.

The chart below helps me feel somewhat better in terms of trying to explain the significant swings in my licensing revenue. As the U.S. Federal Funds rate decreases, it becomes cheaper to borrow money. As that rate increases, borrowing becomes more expensive, making it harder for businesses to finance their operations. That said, I wouldn't say I'm qualified as an expert in this nonsense so I'd take this chart with a grain of salt. If you've got the time, go check out Tyler Vigen's Spurious Correlation where he features charts of correlated data that actually have nothing to do with each other. "Correlation is not causation."

Having a solid understanding of this nonsense has helped me to make better-informed decisions when it comes to investing in new film projects and/or equipment likely to contribute to my stock footage portfolio.

 

Investments in Projects & Equipment

As of last month, I've made a 13% return on the actual money I've dumped into my unfinished rubber stamp project. Based on my previous data, I was confident I'd make a decent return on the licensing fees from the raw footage. My film has elements of small business ownership and the existing clips in my portfolio around a similar theme have done well in the past. I also know I'd be traveling quite a bit while making this film and I've had a good experience with drone footage of city skylines.

Keeping my fixed costs low has certainly been helpful; I own the gear I'm using and I've kept my additional crew expenses to a minimum. Still, I've had major expenses including a week-long road trip to Washington D.C., a couple NYC shoots, and a trip out to Amsterdam with a couple local crew hires. This project still hasn't been released and could honestly be a hot turd, but the reality is that it's been profitable and will continue to generate revenue via stock footage licensing.

Another example is looking at the licensing revenue generated by my DJI Mavic 2 Pro. Currently, I'm not tracking the revenue generated by each piece of gear with my client projects, but I do know what gear was used for my stock footage clips. There's been a 53% return on investment (ROI) with my Mavic 2. In April 2022, I crashed that flying chainsaw to death and I replaced it with a Mavic 3. I do have some stock footage sales connected to that new drone, but considering I don't have as many clips associated with that gear yet, I can imagine it'll be a hot minute before I see the same types of ROI via licensing fees.

 

Forecasting

As an MBA student we learned how to use different forecasting models and I've done some nonsense with my existing licensing data, but it's nothing I'd lean too heavily on. It's important to remember that it's impossible to forecast with zero error, meaning forecasts are always inherently wrong. My stock footage sales haven't been exactly stable the last few years and a level of data stability is necessary if it's being used to forecast. Still, I have a good idea of where I'm at and what to expect.

 

Cool, So Now What?

Do realize that none of this nonsense is directly related to generating additional licensing revenue but simply tracking what's already happening. It's possible to increase the search visibility and potential sales of each clip through search engine optimization (SEO) tools, but I didn't talk about adding more assets to my portfolio. Now that I'm wrapped up on my MBA, I've got the additional margin to go out and create new works that could generate additional licensing revenue.

All this nonsense is helpful in gaining insight and making data-based decisions, but at the same time, I'm fully aware of the fact I'm still a self-described "art kid" out here trying to make creative work. It's a fine line trying to convey a feeling or tell a story while still being profitable.

Shooting Kodak Tri-X 400 at 3200 ISO

At the moment my default in shooting black and white (B&W) film is pushing what's typically a 400 ISO film two stops to 1600. Even when I'm shooting outside with plenty of light to justify the 400 box speed, I still push that emulsion-coated plastic those two stops. That extra sensitivity keeps me from shooting wide open on my Mamyia RB67 and instead lets me stay closer to the faster end of my shutter speeds – 250 & 400 – as well as having a deeper depth of field. There's also the ongoing fantasy that my family and I still live in Brooklyn and those grungy and grainy Lower East Side photos I'm pretending to make are just a short train ride away.

This past Friday afternoon I headed out to the OKC Fairgrounds to try and make something. There's seemingly always an event happening out there, and this past week started the 2024 Oklahoma Youth Expo (OYE). According to their website, the OYE is the "World's Largest Youth Livestock Show." Something like 7,000 4-H and FFA members and their 13,000 head of cattle, sheep, pigs, and goats. Pro-tip: The pig barn smells the worst.

The exhibition barns are ginormous, but the lighting always sucks. There are all kinds of weird light fixtures to try and match, so this made for an easy choice to use Kodak's Tri-X B&W film. It's also weirdly dark, so a great excuse to push that 400 box speed film much more than I would normally.

Try as I might, I couldn't find much of a consensus regarding the developing time for pushing Tri-X 400 three stops to 3200. It's also surprisingly difficult to keep my developing chemistry at the recommended 68° F considering the temperature of my house, so I've always developed my B&W film at 75° F via a Sous Vide machine.

Massive Dev Chart has been my go-to for quite a while, but seemed like it contradicted itself with its push processing. On one page they mention an 11-minute development time to push Tri-X to 3200 using D-76 at 68°, but then elsewhere they elude to a 27-minute development time. Then I found a somewhat official-looking PDF at what looks like a Kodak website laying out yet another approach to developing Tri-X film. They break down the development time according to temperature and push processing, but they were nowhere near the same development times I'd gotten used to over at Massive Dev Chart.

That's when I built out a spreadsheet – shocker – based on Massive Dev Chart's figures and their standard developer push processing compensation advice: +1 stop = x1.5; +2 stops = x2.25; +3 stops = x4.5. That ended up being 20.5 minutes in a stock D-76 solution while agitating the film development tank every 30 seconds to push my Tri-X 3 stops; essentially almost an entire episode of Rick and Morty per roll.

In the end, I decided none of us know what we're doing and we're simply making this nonsense up as we go. Next time I might use that official-looking PDF from Kodak. Still, I ended up with a handful of photos I dug from those two rolls of B&W film. Surely they'd most likely been better used by someone who knew what they were doing and saved me $20 plus the developing gear and chemistry used. If nothing else, I can use the "it's a vibe" phrase with the nonsense I made.

Got my MBA. Now What?

Oh man, if only I had an actual answer to this one. The whole reason I went to business school was this idea that as creatives, we cut ourselves off at the knee because we don't understand the business end of the creative work we do. It's not like business school was a golden ticket or anything, but now that I've done the thing, I've got a diverse set of new business tools that'll carry me through the rest of my career. At least that's the plan – and what I told St. Anne the Wife.

Being the analytics nerd that I am, I kept track of my time as a graduate student in fifteen minute increments. I'm proud of those 1,700+ hours of class and studying these last 18 months though I'm still bitter about that one B I got in Managerial Accounting.

About two years ago I got serious about pursuing this MBA nonsense and it's been a dead sprint ever since. I finished my last classes this past week and it's now the first Monday I've had in 18 months without a load of classwork. It's wild trying to realistically get my footing again as a working professional now that I'm not also a full-time student.

In addition to wrapping up my graduate work at OU, I was in the DFW area this past weekend with the OU MBA program. We heard from a handful of Dallas-based businesses like Texas Health Resources, 7-Eleven, and PepsiCo. I headed down early and got some face time with a couple of my contacts in the DFW area. Sai Selvarajan is a documentary filmmaker and an editor with Camp Lucky. We had lunch Thursday and talked shop about a few of his recent and upcoming projects. In 2021 he released The Unlikely Fan, a short documentary about his mom and her wild love of basketball. The film got accepted to the 2021 SXSW Film Festival and landed Sai some additional opportunities. He's got another film in the works and I'm looking forward to seeing what that leads to. I also met with Micah Austin who's been my go-to at Filmsupply over the years. Seem's like he's just as much an analytics nerd as I am, so we got deep in the weeds with that nonsense.

There are several creative works I'll start spinning back up this week in addition to pre-production work on a couple of client projects. Surely I'll have more updates on those as they get going again. Since I don't have any of my own nonsense to share at this point, here are a few recent podcasts and news articles I've gone through that are worth your time:

Mental Breaks and Existential Dread

I should be writing and re-writing a communications paper at the moment as well as starting to tackle the assigned reading for my classes this week. Instead, I'm taking a quick mental break to share some of the photos I finally developed plus a couple of videos that kept my attention this past week.

If there's been anything helping me balance out the mental load of school and the actual work I do to pay the bills it's been healthy doses of solitaire using physical playing cards and occasionally sneaking out with my RB67 to rip through a roll of film or two. Back in December, I started leaning heavily into Tri-X, one of Kodak's black and white film stocks that's been around since the 1940s. It's typically rated at 400 ISO, but I normally push it two stops and expose it at 1600. This past week was wildly taxing and to deal with the nonsense, I mixed up a new batch of D76 developer and processed a few rolls I'd shot over the last few weeks. There are still plenty of photos from that batch of negatives that need to be scanned in, but at least I got a few from those rolls I was immediately pleased with.

 

AI-Generated Video

This past week also had some WILD advancements in the world of AI-generated video. OpenAI's Sora is "an AI model that can create realistic and imaginative scenes from text instructions." A good deal of my filmmaking peers are going through an existential crisis and claiming the "end is near." I'm not quite in that camp, but I'm certainly paying attention. There's very good reason to be concerned about the potential of tools like this being used for online disinformation. There are also legitimate warning signs going up for those of us making a living with stock footage sales. Marques Brownlee released a solid video this week on what some of this could look like moving forward.

 

Conducting Better Interviews

Another video I caught this week that's worth your time is from my communications class. It's a May 2015 TED Talk from Celeste Headlee: "10 Ways to Have a Better Conversation."

My three biggest takeaways from her talk:

  • "You need to enter every conversation assuming that you have something to learn."
  • "Don't equate your experience with theirs... All experiences are individual. And, more importantly, it is not about you… Conversations are not a promotional opportunity.”
  • "Be interested in other people."
 

St. Anne the Wife and I made our way through Mr. and Mrs. Smith, the new Amazon series from Francesca Sloane and Donald Glover. It's a remake of the 1996 TV series and 2005 film and freakin' outstanding. I'm here for about anything Donald Glover does (Atlanta, Childish Gambino, Community, etc.), so this series was must-watch. Watch the trailer below and then head over to the New York Time's article with co-creator Francesca Sloane.

Surely I'll need another mental break from my classwork this coming week – along with what I actually do for a living – and I'll have more nonsense to share.

Excuses, excuses

It's getting real that I'm only four weeks away from completing my MBA. My communications class currently has us working on a business proposal and pitch using ChatGPT. My strategy class has us in groups competing with each other's simulated businesses. It's all incredibly interesting and essentially the culmination of the work we've been doing throughout our graduate business program. Still, I'm constantly thinking about lighting, composition, and sharing interesting stories and ideas via short documentaries and photos.

With that in mind, this past week I came across a few short films that certainly kept my attention.

There are a few photographers I'm following on YouTube who I think are doing some interesting work. One of them is a Canadian named Kyle McDougall. He's a film photog and former cinematographer and director who's currently living in the UK. This week he flexed those filmmaker muscles with this short and gorgeous documentary about a buddy of his named Nicholas J.R. White.

Another short doc I ran across this week was a piece about zines and zine culture. What felt great about this one is how appropriately handmade it felt, which no doubt felt like a zine itself. Bonus points too for their smash-and-grab usage of some great punk music.

The last thing I'll leave you with this week comes from another YouTuber I recently stumbled on. This channel shares the work of other well-known photographers and attempts to imitate their approaches as a means of learning new techniques. There are plenty of interesting examples on the channel, but I was especially drawn to this one about photographer Olga Karlovac's work.

There's only four more weeks of being able to use the "I wish I could go out and make something interesting but I'm still in grad school" excuse and I'ma ride that thing into the ground. It's much easier to do that than go out and make something interesting myself.

At least for now...

Phoning in Last Week's Highlights

In the time that I'd be normally working on a weekly blog post, I was instead getting my tail handed to me in finalizing last year's tax prep and the homework for my last two MBA classes. So that looks like me sorta phoning this one in and sharing some of highlights of last week.

Anne and I got to watch American Symphony, the documentary film by director Matthew Heineman that follows musician Jon Batiste and his wife Suleika Jaouad as he's having an incredible period in his professional career and she's once again battling leukemia. Filmmaker Magazine has an interview with the film's director and the wild lengths they went to in creating the work. If you've not already seen the film, make sure you do.

This past week was bursting at the seams now that I'm back in full-on MBA mode as well as Anne and the boys being back in school as well. They've had an unusual amount of "snow days" in getting started with their spring semester, so that's certainly smashing into the idea of me working from home. I'm also training for the OKC Memorial half-marathon, which is the first one of those I've done in quite a while. The weather hasn't been kind considering the deep freeze we're thawing from this week, so I've been dodging ice, sub-30° temps, and generally rough conditions. On Saturday I got in a six mile run, which is the furthest distance I've done in years. This morning I got in a short run before starting the day and felt like a sack of potatoes trying to be a real boy.

There's also a couple podcasts from this past week that I'd pass along. The episode about The Hybrid Worker Malaise from The Daily by the New York Times was an interesting one, especially considering how I've worked from home since 2011. There were quite a few issues discussed that I've personally had to work through myself.

There was also the "Surviving Our Lowest Lows" episode from The No Film School Podcast. Filmmaking isn't for the faint of heart and it felt like the two episode contributors had been reading my mail.

The third one I'll leave you with was from the Harvard Business Review's IdeaCast episode "Making Peace with Your Midlife, Mid-career Self". I'm in my early forties and certainly never made it into the cool kids club during Vimeo's golden age. There was also something in this episode about exercise and "how much more expensive a six-pack is" now.

If you've not noticed a theme, it's the first of the year, seasonal depression is a real thing, and from personal experience, I know things get better. Hence me training for a half-marathon this April.

I'll leave you with this last one just drilling graduate business school and the recent flood of MBAs. If nothing else, I'm totally at peace with not taking myself too seriously. Crazy thanks Good Work.

So, Marketing huh?

It's been slow AF the last few weeks. The last few months. The last few years. It's been a rough few years thanks to covid interruptions, entertainment industry strikes, global economic uncertainly, etc., but just knowing that doesn't make it feel any better. If you're reading this and I've worked with you before or you're looking my direction as a potential vendor or crew member, know I'm crazy grateful for those I've been able to work with and look forward to more opportunities with you down the road.

This past week I've been thinking quite a bit about marketing. My Instagram feed has been flooded lately with sponsored ads from photographers, cinematographers, and production companies. While I'm not here to dump on other creatives trying to claw their way into our attention, I'm certainly not the target audience for what I've been getting – unless it's a Machiavellian attempt by Meta to get me to spend my own money to advertise on their platform.

The professor my Strategic Management class this past week mentioned that "You can have the best product [or service] in the market, but if you're not spending any money on marketing, there's a direct correlation to not selling any products [or services].” As a small business, I don't have a set percentage of my revenue I'm spending on marketing, but there's no reason I shouldn't be considering it.

Right now my obvious marketing efforts include my website which I can put an actual dollar amount to, as well as the networking events I attend and my public facing social media accounts, both of which are much harder to account for. Those social media accounts are free to have, but I do go through financial resources in producing some of the content. There is some strategy involved with what, how, and when I post, but not to the extent of an actual marketing plan. There's also these blog posts, but considering my website traffic, let's just admit they're more of a welcomed distraction from doing actual work that'd advance my professional life and increase my revenues.

Back when I first got started as a cinematographer, demo reels were where it's at. I've still got a handful of my 2006 demo reels on burned DVDs. Pretty sure the only one of those demos that actually got sent out was when I applied for a video producer job at Life.Church at the time. Never got that job BTW. My current demo is the same one I've had since 2018 and made up primarily of personal work. There's footage from a couple paid gigs buried in there, but it's just over 10% of the total edit. I do a great deal of "talking head" type shoots, but that kind of footage doesn't seem to add anything to a demo. For that kind of nonsense, I've got a dedicated page of screen grabs and details that I send out to clients. I know my demo reel should be updated with more recent content, but it's hard to look at the last few year's worth of work without being impossibly critical knowing how slow things have been due circumstances out of my control.

You'd need to speak to someone who's regularly hiring new DPs and cam ops, but I couldn't tell you the last time I seriously paid attention to someone's demo reel let alone sit through the entire thing, especially if it's longer than 60 seconds. I've hired DPs and cam ops over the years for different projects, but it's mostly via connections I already have as well as referrals from the network I've developed. Those connections lead me to that individual's website and at least their Instagram account if I'm not already aware of their work.

Lately I have been more interested in other types of marketing material. One idea is putting out a printed promo of some kind. Possibly something like a photo zine of my still photos and frame grabs from my motion work that'd get sent out to select agencies and creatives. I've been following aPhotoEditor for years and love seeing the photographer promos that get sent in and shared. Can't say I've seen a ton of cinematographers do something like that, but it could be an option. Honestly I'd never heard of zines till I got started on my rubber stamp project a few years back. If you're interested, I've started a YouTube playlist with some references in putting one together.

There's also the idea of a YouTube series that's been bouncing around in my head now for weeks. There's still quite a bit I'd want to flesh out before doing a show, so that's certainly a long ways out if it were to ever happen. I do already have bits and pieces that I'd include in something like that, so it's not completely out of reach. It'd be partly a marketing effort seeing as how it'd showcase the kinds of work I do, but I'm hesitant to be the center of attention like so much of the YouTube content out there; surely there's ways around that.

Can We Talk About YouTube?

This past week or so I've been trying to justify the last 500+ days of my life and my shiny new student loans. In March I'll be a self-proclaimed creative with an actual master's degree in business and instead of being productive and furthering my professional life, I've been digging into YouTube and trying to smash together the creative work I do and some of what I've learned in business school.

No question, I spend far more time consuming video content on YouTube compared any other the other streaming platform (Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Amazon Prime, etc.). We've got an antenna connected to our TV to get the basic channels and it's been at least a decade since we've had any kind of cable subscription.

According to November 2023 Nielsen data, streaming made up more than 36% of the total TV usage with YouTube alone claiming 9%. Having been around before the internet was a thing as well as essentially growing up with it, seeing traditional network TV be eclipsed by streaming is bonkers.


There's also the ginormous advertising revenue YouTube brings in. Back in August I'd posted an MSNBC video here on this blog that went on about changes in TV viewing and advertising revenues amongst some of the social platforms and traditional media outlets. In 2022, YouTube brought in $29.2 billion in ad revenues, completely dwarfing their competition.

So why bring any of this up?

After the boys went to sleep on Christmas Eve, Anne and I wound up watching some old videos of us on my YouTube channel. Before each video started, we'd have to sit through one or two ads on the work I'd created and I'm certainly not seeing any of that revenue. YouTube is a free service and I know they cover their expenses and make a profit from advertising dollars, but dang I'd have liked to pocket even a sliver of that ad revenue.

Right now my YouTube channel is swimming in old videos from 2006 till 2013 when the cool kids left for Vimeo. The golden age of that video platform is way gone, but somehow I'm still paying them $59.95/yr for a Vimeo Plus membership.

If you've been paying attention, you'll know there's some independent YouTube channels bringing in some outrageous revenues. There's a financial YouTuber I watch with 833k subscribers who laid out his numbers and revenue streams recently. That video sent me down a rabbit hole of similar ones from other independent creators: the productivity dude with 5.1m subscribers and the millions he earned in 2022; a music composer with a PhD and 4.71k subscribers; this dude talking about how much money his wife's fitness channel makes.

In considering what it takes to get monetized on YouTube, it's something like 1,000 subscribers and 4,000 public watch hours in the last 365 days. Currently I've only got 310 subscribers and 120 public watch hours. Needless to say, if I'm ever wanting to see a dime from those ads in front of my videos, I've got quite a hike ahead. That said, I'm not opposed to the idea.

I'm clear-eyed enough to know this isn't a "get rich quick" thing, regardless of what the YouTube algorithm has fed me. Turns out there's also business models built around buying monetized channels, but from what I've read it sounds like a bad idea. There's so much information available on how to get started doing this nonsense, and plenty of it has got to be just hot steamy trash. Thursday I spent 45+ minutes listening to two art YouTubers – of course that's a thing – with their aptly named "How to Avoid the Artist to Content Creator Pipeline on YouTube."

Surely the world doesn't need another YouTube channel, let alone one with my face plastered all over it. Considering how long it takes me to write a single blog post, would I actually have the bandwidth to keep feeding the YouTube beast? Being on the tail end of my MBA and the 1,600+ hours of studying I've logged since fall 2022, what I know now still seems incredibly small compared to what I know I don't know.

Still, I like the idea of sharing some of the conversations I get to have with people who are much smarter and more interesting than I am. I'm also a fan of attending film festivals as a networking opportunity, but questioning the value of paying film submission fees when instead I could post my project online and use that festival submission budget on a promotional campaign.

Staying self-employed, providing for my family, and helping others are still the main goals. The fact that I've been able to make a living in part due to passive income streams seems like a magic trick compared to the alternative. The tremendous time and effort I've dumped into business school was meant to be a long-term investment instead of simply buying more gear I'd end up replacing a few years later. Surely I can position some of what I've learned in a way that legitimately helps others, covers my expenses, and turns a profit.

Surely the world needs more of this kind of nonsense though:

 

UPDATE: March 2, 2024

The fact that our six-year-old could barely leave the room as I'm writing this because there's an image of MrBeast on my screen is telling.

Wisecrack is one of the YouTube channels I've followed for quite a while and recently they released a video titled MrBeast and the Toxic Culture of YouTube. It's a long watch and goes deep – it's a philosophy channel after all – but certainly worth your time considering this post. The video goes into depth about a recent Times article, "In the Belly of MrBeast" written by Belinda Luscombe.

One quote from the Times article that I don't remember from the Wisecrack video but is wildly alarming goes into how much time this dude is spending on set.

It all requires an enormous amount of time and effort, especially for someone with a finely tuned need for quality control. Donaldson has 15-hour filming days 20 to 25 times a month and devotes the other days to Feastables. But he’s always been a guy willing to knuckle down if he thinks the payoff will be there.

20 to 25 15-hour filming days a month. For anyone working in production, that's insane and not at all healthy let alone sustainable. It's certainly not an example to follow.

More importantly, there's this line that should raise some major red flags:

“These algorithms are poisonous to humanity. They prioritize addictive, isolated experiences over ethical social design, all just for ads,” he says. “It’s not MrBeast I have a problem with. It’s platforms which encourage someone like me to study a retention graph so I can make the next video more addicting."

I'd mentioned my six-year-old earlier. That 40lb house fire thinks this YouTuber hung the moon. "He helps people." He went on to tell me in detail about several different videos he'd seen where MrBeast gives out life-changing amounts of money to people who could honestly use it. Surely that's a good thing, but how do I approach telling my kid about all the other nonsense involved with making that happen let alone some of the ethical concerns?

Things Other than Business School

Got to make and do some stuff that wasn't directly related to business school over the last few weeks, so that was great. I had some time off following the second module of the fall semester and I ripped through something like nine rolls of medium format film both here in Oklahoma City as well as a few days in New York. I got to sneak up to NYC for the Cinematography Salon Holiday Party and then back a couple days later with St. Anne the Wife and the two housefires for a holiday trip. Crazy, crazy thanks to Jeremy McDaniel for letting me crash at his place in Brooklyn for a couple days.

UPDATE
The good folks at Cinematography Salon released a recap video from the December Holiday party in Brooklyn. If you look closely, you'll see me in my nonsense along with with Jeremy – well, our backs at least – checking out the motion control and Phantom camera setup at about 0:02 into the video.

 

BOOKS I'M INTO AT THE MOMENT

I also plowed through a few books the last few weeks. Know I'm trying to dodge talking about school stuff, but in addition to a load of solid Harvard Business Review articles, I got to read Leaders Eat Last by Simon Sinek for my Advanced Leadership class. There's a few solid takeaways in the book, but the stickiest one to me was the idea of how abundance destroys value.

It’s not when things come easily that we appreciate them, but when we have to work hard for them or when they are hard to get that those things have greater value to us._

…it’s the struggle it takes to make it work that helps give that thing its value._

The two non-business related books I worked through were Poor Things by Alasdair Gray and Fight Club by Chuck Palahniuk. I wanted to read through the book before seeing the film version of Poor Things by director Yorgos Lanthimos. Honestly I'm glad I did considering all the changes they made from the source material. I enjoyed the book and the film was WILD. I'd seen David Fincher's film version of Fight Club years ago like just about everyone else in the western world but never read the original book. I'd read Palahniuk's Make Something Up: Stories You Can't Unread in late 2021 and it's wild. Looking forward to the next Palahniuk book I get to read.

I've also started reading Dune Messiah by Frank Herbert. Dune: Part Two by director Denis Villeneuve is coming out this March and I'd finished reading the original Dune book before the 2021 movie came out. I've heard the third movie is already in the works, hence me making sure I'm ready for that glorious nonsense.

Short-Term Investment Returns as a Freelancer & Small Business

So, checking in on a certain blog post from January 2023. That one where I rambled on about short-term investments for freelancers & small businesses. It's been a full year to simmer on and experiment with this nonsense and wanted to share where I landed.

First off, it's worth mentioning that financially, 2023 was a hot mess. Those interest rate hikes intended to cool inflation seem to be making for the soft landing the Fed was hoping for, but the process still felt like riding an unfinished roller coaster in the dark. Higher interest rates made borrowing more expensive, and that certainly meant it was harder to finance production budgets. That squeeze showed up in my stock footage sales which were down about 48% from 2022 and down 51% from a five year average. Then came the entertainment industry strikes. Serious kudos to both the Writers Guild and SAG-AFTRA for holding out and getting good deals, but the process and industry fall out wasn't pretty, especially for those working in production. Thankfully I wasn't directly impacted by the strikes and personally can't blame it for a slower year – my labor income was actually up 6% from 2022 and up 12% from a five year average. That said, I have plenty of friends in film production who are seeing their revenues be well below normal.

I'm not here to whine about a genuinely rough year, but did want to share one of my wins. Last time I'd mentioned it, U.S. Treasury bills (T-Bills) were sitting at just north of 4%. Around the end of May 2023, the 4-Week T-Bill peaked at a 5.9% coupon equivalent. These nearly risk-free short-term investments weren't a bad place to park your short-term money, especially considering the alternative of just leaving it in a basic savings account which as of Dec. 18, 2023 is 0.46%. I'll not go into the details about T-Bills here, but if you're interested, go back to that previous blog post where I dig into that glorious bond nonsense as well as high yield savings account options.

Part of the way I track my financial nonsense is based on the gross profit of each project. From that gross profit, I set aside 20% to cover end of year taxes and tax prep fees. For example:

MathJax example

\[Project\ Revenue\ - Project\ Expenses\ = Gross\ Profit \] \[$1,000 - $100 = $900 \]
\[Gross\ Profit * 20\% = Set\ Aside\ for\ Tax\ Purposes\] \[$900 * 20\% = $180\]

Instead of just parking that cash in a savings account like I'd normally do, this year I bought U.S. Treasury Bills directly from the U.S. government at treasurydirect.gov. You can only buy T-Bills in $100 increments, so my individual purchases ranged from $100 to $7,500 throughout the year.

This is where I'm supposed to talk about how I did everything according to plan. Instead, for the first few months of the year I used a good deal of that tax money set aside to pay down business related debt from 2022. The return I'd have made in those short-term T-Bills making 4-5% wasn't worth the interest I would've been paying on that debt with its 15+% interest rate. Once I got that debt paid off I returned to my short-term investment plan, refilled those cash reserves spent to pay down debt, and kept at it throughout the rest of the year. I also planned it out so that those purchased T-Bills would all mature by around mid- to late-December, allowing me to cover my business taxes and tax prep fees.

I experimented with buying different lengths of T-Bills throughout the year, but for the most part just stuck with buying the 4-week option which is the shortest period available. There's a difference in the interest rates for each of the other options and the longer term ones generally earned a higher return, but I calculated everything out and with the amounts I was dealing with, it didn't make a considerable difference. At first I was buying the T-Bills in one-period increments, but then started setting them up to where at maturity they'd automatically reinvest for another period at the current rate.

I'm a big fan of financial transparency. As a household, statistically we're in the top 20% of income earners in the U.S. according the U.S. Census Bureau. St. Anne the Wife is a public school teacher with two masters degrees here in Oklahoma, which according to USAFacts ranks 35th in the nation in terms of teacher pay. I'm a self-employed creative with a bachelor's degree and will finish my masters degree in business (MBA) this March. Currently my take home pay is less than half of the the average MBA salary here in Oklahoma and I'd honestly prefer to keep doing my own thing after graduation, so take that however you will.

Could I be earning more than I am? Yes, I believe so.
Am I primarily motivated by how much money I can make and having more things? No.
Do I enjoy the work I get to do? Most of the time.
Am I doing the right thing and providing for my family? I sure hope so.

I feel like if we were more open about our finances it'd help others in figuring out their own financial nonsense. It's one of those "rising tide lifts all boats" kind of thing. There's a Planet Money podcast with comedian Maria Bamford and financial transparency that I'd recommend if you're interested. With that in mind, by the end of November 2023 I'd done about $111,000 in actual revenue had a gross profit of $82,000. That left about $13,000 set aside for end of year taxes purposes. That number is a bit off from an actual 20% due to one of my larger clients this year requiring me to be hired and paid for my labor fees as a W-2 contractor instead of a typical 1099 S-Corporation and they withheld those taxes on their end.

Below is a line chart of what my actual cumulative U.S. Treasury Bill earnings looked like compared to what that same amount of cash would've done had it just sat in my savings account throughout the year. Here's a line chart of what my actual cumulative U.S. Treasury Bill earnings looked like compared to what that same amount of cash would've done had it just sat in my savings account throughout the year. You can tell I had some small successes and got more confident during the summer, then got serious about this hot mess starting in the fall. It's worth noting that the returns are directly related to the amount invested, hence that bar chart above. Like I said, I stopped jacking around and got serious in the fall. My cashflows are typically very low in August, but ramp up considerably right after that.

Let's be honest: $150 extra isn't all that much, especially considering the infrastructure and spreadsheet work I put in to track all this nonsense. That said, no question I'll take that return over that $13 I'd have made otherwise had I just left that cash sitting in a basic savings account. Let's not get into the fact that I'd have had a $335 return had I stuck with my plan through the entire year instead of paying off that business related debt those first few months. Will I continue doing this in 2024? Yep, and I've already started. As of the end of December 2023, those four week T-Bill rates are still up in the 5.4% range.

Maybe the biggest takeaway was the fact I wasn't freaking out the last few months of the year. Normally I'll end up digging into that financial cushion more than I should to cover other expenses, leaving me scrambling for cash at the end of the year. This short-term investment nonsense put just enough room in-between me and that cash reserve to keep my hands off it.

Another takeaway is the fact that I saw positive gains with little to no risk and without putting myself in a bind. Again, an additional $150 return isn't much considering I spend about that on coffee each month. Previously I've justified digging into my cash reserves to buy gear I'd assumed would pay for itself, but it doesn't always work out.

I'm also avoiding the fact that the small stock market portfolio I'm actively managing – not our retirement accounts – is up 40% year to date compared to the S&P 500 being up 24% this year. Me being greedy is thinking about how I could've put that short-term cash into the stock market and made a much heftier return, even after paying the short-term capital gain taxes. But then there's the scars from last year and the S&P 500 having been down 18% in 2022. I'm considering putting a small amount of my profits into the stock market via my S-Corp and actively managing that portfolio as well, but haven't started just yet. For sure that'd be a long-term investment decision and one outside my regular SEP IRA retirement contributions.